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Lava flow hazards: Past, present and future perspective.
In the last decades, the assessment of volcanic hazards has become one of the most rapidly developing topics in volcanology, especially for risk prevention and mitigation actions. Different numerical methods and tools have been developed to help scientists and decision-makers to better understand the evolution of eruptive phenomena and quantify the related hazards and risk. In the case of high-risk phenomena, such as lava flows, predicting their spatial and temporal evolution and determining the potentially affected areas is fundamental in supporting every action directed at mitigating the risk, as well as for environmental planning. Here we will review the most relevant models and tools that have been developed for the lava flow hazard monitoring and assessment, including the lessons learnt during recent eruptive emergencies worldwide. Moreover, we will present the preliminary results of the INGV project PANACEA, which aims to develop new capabilities for volcanic and seismic disaster management at Mount Etna, based on multi-hazard analyses and the quantification of cascading effects scenarios that will be also directly usable for multi-risk assessment.